Recession?

Kan de bli recession trots att centralbanker pumpar pengar och har rekordlåga räntor? Vad tar de till för metoder om de blir de?

"Durable Goods Orders" är negariva för första gången sedan recessionen 2008-2009.

" whenever Manufacturing Durable Goods Orders fell by more than 10%, the economy has either been in, or was about to enter a recession"

Dessa nummer är egentligen viktigare än nuvarande arbetsstatistik. Går de sämre för företagen kommer de leda till uppsägningar och fler blir arbetslösa.

"There has been an abundance of bulls pointing to strong Weekly Jobless Claims, decent Non Farm Payrolls data and a recovery in Housing. However, these bulls obviously do not understand how a business cycle works and it is a slump in Goods Orders that builds Inventory and eventually forces companies to pull back on Investment and increase Lay Offs. In other words, manufacturing leads employment and employment eventually creates confidence in Housing, not the other way around"